Is it selfish to think the collapse of the economy and potential loss of employment is worth it for component prices to drop back to normal?
I mean… both are inevitable… the economy has collapsed for the normal people, and employments been hitting everyone for over a year.
Ive been sitting on some cash waiting for things to tank so I can buy a new car below MSRP
I don’t think so. I sometimes think of covid and how when actual calamity hits we suddenly realize money is a kind of fiction. If the economy goes totally to shit we will see no mass starvation and probably not even mass homelessness or else we would have to admit what a giant failure capitalism is.
Just like covid, at the end of the day when shit hits the fan we retreat back to that archaic and ancient system known as “socialism”.
It won’t disappear, but the business will drastically change, and the knock-on effects will be serious.
It will be like the dot com bubble in many ways. Back in the late 1990’s every other TV commercial was for Pets.com, Ask Jeeves regularly had a balloon in the Macys Thanksgiving parade, and Lycos was pushing to be the home page for everybody. They never recovered after the bubble burst, and companies like Google quickly took over.
In a similar vein I think a lot of the AI big hitters will vanish once this bubble bursts, leaving one or two lucky/cautious ones still around to scavenge the pieces. But I don’t think companies will be so hung ho about using AI for everything once that happens.
the internet was so exciting and interesting back then.
Compared to now where its just another corporate ruined hellscape that you cant even begin to get into without protection.
I could see generalist LLMs IE ChatGPT disappearing if only because they seem pretty fucken useless on average.
I don’t think they will. I’m the first to be massively sceptical of LLMs, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be used to build good tools. The key is recognising that tasks where correctness is vital should not be solved by the LLM directly. At my job, we’ve built an LLM-agent that’s very useful (internal use). What we’ve done is build essentially a Python library that this LLM uses to interact with our data. That way, we ensure that a query like “set up a skeleton for X” will be done correctly, while we save a bunch of time that would have otherwise been spent doing boilerplate work.
Basically: Enforce correctness by constraining how the LLM can interact with your data, and use the LLM to translate short natural-language queries into actions that otherwise would have taken 30 min of click-ops or write-run-toss scripting.
That’s exactly the opposite of what I’m talking about, the LLM that your work is using is while perhaps generalist for internal standards is still rather limited compared to the large more general models being such as ChatGPT or whatever the fuck musks model is called. No I’m talking about the fuck off massive models that have been scraping the entire internet in a vain attempt to create AGI, so the stupid cloud based models that have been being shoved into everything.
I think those are going to implode on themselves simply because they are too expensive versus the fuckall you get out of them.
Anyone thinking this means the technology will disappear will be sorely disappointed.
It will collapse on its own overinflated expectations anyway. Its not the clean easy replacement for humans that CEOs are pretending it is.
But can it replace CEOs?
Please?
Yeah it won’t go away but my job will mostly go back to normal. Right now they force us to use AI for everything even the stuff it sucks at. Even if I can do a better job manually they force me to use it. It’s insane.
I want to use it to help me with the stuff I suck at and let me do the stuff I am good at. I can’t wait for that to start. That’s how I have used it in my personal life and it’s been actually helpful. Not life changing though just helpful
That it won’t, but hopefully models will be more usable for private selfhosted use, and most definitely the related companies will go belly up which is a good thing and the datacenter boom will at least for the moment stop
It would also give that last push to the US to go over the cliff and end itself. I’m hoping it will kill the trump admin for good and make all politicians talk more about stopping the ultra rich for good
Still time to inflate more. This season is still building up to the biggest and baddest. At the start of this season we hear names like Mythos and Glasswing but they don’t mean anything. Now we’ve learned they’re a new and faster way to discover vulnerabilities in software. The foreshadowing is building. We have the date, we know the upcoming catastrophe. In July, they will make public thousands of new software vulnerabilities. The internet will panic, software companies will spend billions on ai service to handle the damage. Anthropic will have a record IPO, followed by other AI companies. It’ll be YUGE. Stay tuned for the cliff hanger
Wouldn’t it be neat of a ton of really rich assholes, suddenly woke up poor?
Oh no, I was a billionaire now I’m slumming it with 700 million…
More common: I am 65 years old and my retirement just imploded.
Eh they can’t let it get that bad or else they know humanity will truly embrace socialism and vote to strip mine the wealthy of their assets.
Why do you think folks like Peter Thiel and Larry Ellison are pushing “law enforcement” and mass surveillance so hard?
At least some of them believe they can credibly secure themselves against the masses easier than they can appease the masses.
Yes, but they’ll socialize the losses.
If only this only impacted them.
The flow on effects of a major market crash are never isolated to just the stupid assholes building the bubble.
Get ready for GFC #2.
This one will be a lot worse than the sub-prime mortgage crisis, as AI investment has left many major banks, index funds, and most of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world heavily exposed, and the world governments are already at historic levels of debt - meaning a bail-out even if desired by those in power, may not be possible as it was in 2008.
Let’s see how many governments will end up with a D rating. The USA are probably a given but this might set a lot of major companies on fire so who knows who else will run out of money.
Of course China is laughing all the way to the bank. Their economy isn’t super healthy right now but they aren’t reliant on semiconductor companies that chained themselves to the AI racket. So they might weather the crash mostly unharmed and we’ll all end up buying Loongson in the future because all of the x64 and ARM companies have folded.
Will it stop the invasion of data centers?
Hurry! The government should buy 50% of its value like Bernie says.
Summary of the article, why and how?
Summary: bubble gonna burst, when not if
Why: it’s a fucking scam propped up by venture capital
How: as soon as companies start getting charged the actual token cost they drop their subscription and for some reason investors don’t like this
Yup. Cost for copilot at my work just went up and the tone changed from, “Use it everywhere!” to, “Use it where it makes sense.” I mean, that should’ve always been the guidance but as usual the vendors gave them a good show with their shiny new tech, execs came in their pants, and the engineers were expected to make magic happen.
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This gives me so much hope.
Maybe one day those who don’t rely on AI would be seen as more valuable since you know, they don’t need an expensive tool and produce the same output, probably even better since it’s slop free.
Then I realize that our society has made me value people in some shape or form by their ability to produce stuff, and that’s the real tragedy here
But the next hype is just around the corner. But this time it’s for realsies, promise!
Good to hear.
Any more on the “when”?
Would like to see it pop already.
The article gives no specific timeline, but given the amount of Ed Zitron peacocking lately I can’t imagine later than the end of the year. My uneducated guess.
With openAI, anthropic, and spaceX all going to IPO within ~6 months of each other, it’s absolutely going to be this year.
It’s literally the first two paragraphs lmao
While the index hit another record closing high, it was only 21 stocks that led it there — just one more than the 20 that propelled the dot-com bubble to its peak before everything came crashing down in 2000.
Other key red flags behind recent performance include what Hartnett called “speculative” and “exponential price action;” overvaluation of firms that have yet to produce earnings relative to their stock price; a high bull & bear indicator; extreme imbalance and over-concentration, with only 10 stocks comprising two-fifths of the index’s power; and the fact that the vast majority of S&P components (upwards of 330) are now sitting at 20-40% below their previous highs.
Basically the market conditions are similar to when the dot com bubble burst: few stocks made up majority of the index power, overvalued firms, and majority of stocks are 20-40% below their previous highs.
I don’t click on links because the articles are almost always clickbait with walls of irrelevant fluff text, generally.
Thanks for the conclusion at end cause I didn’t get the stuff above it lol.
