- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
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Sooooo that gives us how long, exactly, until we dive nose first into a huge world wide recession?
Remove the rich
Nobody should be allowed to be a billionaire, put max caps on netwoths. Anything over 10-20 million should go 100% to tax
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Peter Thiel sells his Tesla stake
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Telsa price goes up
Lolz. Lmao even.
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Anyone hear a loud hissing sound?
i hate peter thiel but i also hate nvidia and tesla so i hope this ends out somehow being bad for everyone
My bet is that he’s trying to start a panic in the markets. That way he can clean up on a short.
Oh, it will. Bad for everyone human.
The best case, I think, is for Nvidia and Tesla to do well in the short term (next 6 months or so) and then crash. That way Thiel and most people following his investment advice get to eat it, but the bubble doesn’t stay propped up for too long.
Hilarious that at the end of this specific article, for me, an ad popped up advertising AI investing 😂 Jesus we are so fucked
Honestly, if someone is goi g to pick shit at random, I rather have AI do it for 5 bucks a month than abnaker for 200k a year.
Of you’re going for chaos based investing, just buy a goldfish
I hope your 401K is diversified because this will bring down a lot with its fall.
I hope your 401K is diversified
When the MAG7 makes up half the S&P 500, its hard to get away from. Even if you somehow manage to avoid holding a big tech company (or a company that’s predicated on the spending of a Big Tech company), a downturn will force cascading sell-offs.
Does anyone 401k even let them choose what they want to invest in?
I have like 4 plans I can choose: Retire 2035, Retire 2045, Retire 2055, Retire 2065 and that’s it.
No options in the portal to do anything else. I can’t choose my stocks, any indexes, anything. The only other page is to change my contribution percent.
Yup, I have ~15 options. Basically:
- low cost S&P 500, US mid-cap fund, US small-cap fund, and total international funds (all under 0.10% ER)
- 1-2 actively managed options for each of the first bullet point with much higher fees
- 3 bond funds
- a cash fund
- a retirement fund (tons of bonds and cash)
I’m in a mix of the first bullet point.
401ks won’t let you pick specific stocks, generally speaking, but they should have more options than just target date funds. Most will at least have an S&P 500 fund and usually an international fund.
I have a 403(b) because I work at a university but yes we get to pick between a ton of stock funds but also a handful of blended assets, an invested bond, and a non-invested bond if you really think shit’s gonna go south. My last job did not offer this kind of thing tho.
I thought we decided to not post stonks crap in here. It‘s what completely ruined the technology community over at Reddit before the entire site was ruined.
The underlying story is the AI bubble that we all know will end badly. They are shoving lying and hallucinating AI on our devices and into our employment without consent. It’s going to come down, its a matter of when, not if.
Well if we gonna make a post every time some rich fucker sells tech stonks now it will quickly evolve into spam. I mean, we already know AI is overblown and we don‘t need to take a single glance at someone‘s portfolio to know that because this is a technology community and we‘re informed about what big tech keeps promising and underdelivering for 3 years straight.
AI bubble that we all know will end badly.
7 to 11X bigger than sub prime crash in 2008. NGL: watching Real Estate agents eating in soup kitchens was not a tragedy.
Hope he loses everything
To shreds you say?
And how’s his wife?
I do believe he is starting investments into new projects and needed liquid cash. I wouldn’t dig too deep into this.
Soo… gold and silver then? No clue how crypto is gonna hold up.
Can we get a TL;DR for those who hate clickbait, please?
From what I can tell, it looks like there are a lot of loans out right now, the rate at which they are issued has increased since the beginning of the Trump presidency has increased dramatically, and this is like really bad because If those loans don’t get paid back then pillars start collapsing underneath the financial system. Lose too many of those and the whole thing comes crashing down.This one graph doesn’t represent all of the bad that is going on, it’s just a sort of a weathervane to tell you which way the wind is blowing. …and right now it’s blowing where the sun don’t shine.
So, short the financial sector. Got it.
You may ask what are NDFIs ?
(NDFIs) such as broker-dealers, hedge funds, private equity and credit funds, securitization vehicles and subprime auto lenders. Such lending to the financial sector has helped fuel record-high leverage among hedge funds, decade-high leverage among primary dealers, record-high and rising margin debt, and record-high and rising repurchase agreement (repo) lending to hedge funds and others, which in turn has helped fuel record-high asset prices in many cases
source again https://adamjosephson.substack.com/p/ndfi-loans-are-far-larger-than-we
Rich Mean Boys.
Nvidia has near monopoly on semiconductors. Even if Nvidia stocks crash, they will recover. I just trimmed my own shares on Nvidia to cushion the blow.
They have a near monopoly on cloud service genAI data center GPUs. They don’t make the semiconductors. They just hand the design for those chip to TSMC and then sell what TSMC makes for them. The vast majority of their revenue right now is coming from selling stuff to new genAI data centers, if those stop getting built, they loose 80% of their revenue. And their current valuation is based on an assumption of an order of magnitude of new such data centers being built year on year.
I think, that it’s very likely that demand for new such chips is liable to drop to 0 because the capacity of currently extant data center using their chips is already overbuilt for realistic demand. No one other than Nvidia is making money on these data centers, and there is no path to profitability.
Thanks for the info. Silly me didn’t realise Nvidia doesn’t manufacture semiconductors. I thought Nvidia also does because they are one of the leaders in GPU. Speaking of GPUs, at the very least they command the GPU market.
They’re about a 2/3rds majority in the consumer and workstation market, and that’s not insignificant, but that’s also not a significant part of their revenue by this point, nor is it why their stock makes up a terrifying percentage of the S&P 500.
If their revenue returned to just being that, they’d basically cease to be a relevant company and their stock price would crater. It’s a decent business to be in, but, it’s not a infinite growth, line goes up forever, business to be in.
Not really. TSMC has a near monopoly on the advanced fabrication, and ASML has a near monopoly on the lithographic machines TSMC uses. Nvidia is a fab-less designer. Google has its TPUs, and Amazon has some kind of custom chip too.
I also invested in TSMC.
ASML is way too expensive for my taste. I’ve been hoping they will do split stock so I could get in.
Even if Nvidia stocks crash, they will recover.
NVIDIA is up 1500% in two years, with a p/e ratio of 56 in a market that’s absolutely ravenous for semiconductors. The idea that the demand for semiconductors can flatline as data center production stales and NVIDIA’s valuation will just rebound to its current high is… well, it’s highly speculative what NVIDIA is going to do, but I wouldn’t bank on the current status quo.
If nothing else, it’s a stock that can safely be described as “overvalued”. Selling now isn’t a bad idea.
Yeah, a “safe” PE ratio is around 20. The PE of the entire market is about 28, so investors are basically saying Nvidia is going to grow at double the rate vs the rest of the economy.
I think that’s bonkers, but what’s even more bonkers is Palantir with a ~1700 PE ratio. That’s ludicrous.
If Nvidia crashes, I expect it fall to about half it’s current valuation, maybe a bit higher, and that’s assuming their sales aren’t impacted. If the floor falls out from GPUs, then drop that to 1/3 or so.
