Victim of Communism

  • 158 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • But Google tells me that a typical rate for size of mortgage in your example is 6.6%, not 2.85%.

    Today, certainly. Back in 2020 when we were entering the COVID-induced recession, the prime rate plunged back into ZIRP territory and you could refinance a mortgage incredibly cheaply.

    Also of note, the 25 year mortgage has a slightly lower rate than the 30

    Generally speaking, your options are 15 year or 30 year (at least in the US). The difference in interest rates is typically marginal, though. Maybe .5 pt, from what I’ve seen. The real perceived benefit is paying off the debt faster. But… again, if the loan is large and the interest rate is small, you’re putting a lot of cash behind a comparatively low return.


  • I might go one further and suggest this is why the “Just tax the billionaires” line never actually delivers the goods. It’s a classic Belling-The-Cat problem, because its very easy to say “Tax the Billionaires” but its very difficult to move forward with a policy that does the actual thing, without billionaires pooling their resources to prevent you from accessing any of the levers of power.

    You need a certain collectivist worldview to even attempt the problem of regulating and sanctioning a bourgeois class. And when you’re brainwashed by some combination of out-of-context Adam Smith quotes and reskinned Milton Friedman / Ayn Rand videos, good fucking luck.

    Fun fact: you can actually read the justifications for why socialist countries managed by proletariat governments have implemented limited market systems in their economies in China, Vietnam, Cuba, USSR, even Korea. Their thoughts are public!

    If you know where to look and you trust the source material and you’ve got the patience to work through the finer details, sure.

    But that’s the sort of learning you typically need to tackle in grade school if you want it to stick. Open minds and lots of free time are necessary to get this kind of rigorous political education. By the time you’ve had your head crammed full of cable news fearmongering and employer-sponsored propaganda, you’ll be allergic to the very idea of taking a book like Fanshen or The Bolivian Diary at face value.


  • There are two things missing from that calculation. First, the mortgage savings are generally after tax, while investment gains are taxable. So the comparison of break even needs to take this into account.

    Long term taxation on investments is 15%. So, at a 2.85 interest rate we’re still talking about 3.3% ROI. I can beat that buying a US Treasury Bond.

    Secondly, if pay off the mortgage earlier, then you have some number of years at the end where you can then invest the entirety of your payment instead of paying mortgage.

    But you’ve foregone all the income returns in the initial years that you failed to invest in the market.

    Let’s be conservative and predict a 7% market ROI (right now, the markets are doing closer to 25% YOY). If my options are $1100 mortgage payment over 25 years or $1000 over 30 years, I’m looking a 25 years of $100/mo savings ($1200/year -> 25 years = $30,000). By the time you’ve paid off your mortgage, my accrued investment returns amount to around $78k. So we’re going into year 26. I’ve got $78k in investment principle, at 7%/year, earning me $5400/year. That’s nearly half my mortgage note. You’re putting your first $1100/mo => $13,200/year into savings, having missed 25 years of compounded returns.

    Up the ROI from 7% to 10% (the historical DOW return over the last 30 years), and now I’ve got $123k in principle, earning $12,300/year, which is more than the mortgage note.

    The excess you’re paying into the mortgage is effectively an investment with a yield equal to your interest rate. If you were paying an 11% note, getting rid of your mortgage quickly makes sense. But at 3%, it does not.

    The raw math becomes ($mortgage payment)(ROI - Interest Rate) = Implicit Return.

    The last thing isn’t numbers, really. You can live in a house, you cannot live in an investment account

    In both scenarios, we’re living in the house. The amount you pay on the note doesn’t change that.

    Not to mention the discipline bit that you mentioned.

    That’s where the math ultimately gets fuzzy. Are you actually banking the $100/mo in mortgage savings as investment? Or are you just shoving it in your savings account and forgetting about it? Or spending it?

    I find that periodic automatic transfers do a lot of this book-keeping for me. 401ks come out of my paycheck before it hits my savings account. I’ve got an automatic monthly deduction for my son’s 529 and my Roth IRA. And I try to do a sweep from my savings to investments roughly once a month, when I’m over a certain cash balance.

    But I’ll concede all this requires a certain surplus income. If you’re stuck living paycheck to paycheck, its possible that paying down the mortgage faster is just less of a headache than juggling balances to make sure ends meet.











  • The poors can still get in if they are willing to become indebted wage slaves with a 6 figure debit for the next 20-30 years.

    They can’t. Those schools are all scams. That’s the real ugliness. Private universities charging six figures also have some of the worst placement rates and poorest post-collegate incomes.

    Just, don’t expect to get in to a social connection generator for nepo babies

    Right. Because the degree is a social gatekeeper first and foremost.





  • You’ve found a bunch of clickbait headlines built on anecdotes.

    But absent a marginal performance dip in the wake of COVID, overall US rates have been relatively flat for the first quarter of the 21st century.

    What you’re witnessing is a media converge on a given topic, not a social crisis. Once the media hype dies down, you’ll forget about it.