Since the election I’ve kinda buried my head in the sand to try and stay sane, so I’m not sure what projections are looking like for the real estate market. Unfortunately I need to move pretty ASAP and I’m having the worst luck with rentals.
So, anyone have any advice or an idea of the outlook in the next few months?
No one knows.
But, if rates suddenly drop you can always refinance.
The Trump administration had a few ideas on how to fix the market, which boiled down to removing regulations. The Harris administration had a more complete plan that addressed housing costs at different angles including regs but we no ont be getting that plan anytime soon.
It’s always a good time to buy if you are confident that you will live there for 3-5 years. Even pre 2008 crash, homes recovered in about 5 years.
The important part is avoiding becoming house poor. The payment you can qualify for and the payment you can afford are very different. There’s plenty of online calculators that can show you what a payment would look like. In many states taxes can increase dramatically after the first year, so be prepared to pay more in the future. For a down payment, 20% is ideal but often unrealistic for a first time buyer. More is better, but don’t clean out your entire account. You can put as little as 3% down, but that’s a good sign you can’t afford it if anything goes wrong
Not answering your question. But if you do buy, don’t listen to the realtor or loan officer about how big a loan you can afford. Both are incentivized to sell you the biggest house/loan. Neither will care when you’re struggling to pay for it.
You’re monthly payment plus insurance plus taxes should be something you could safely pay for six months while unemployed. If that’s impossible, get a small house. The worst possible situation is being house poor.
I went with buying raw land out of the city, for me it’s a 30 minute drive and no traffic, my “rent” is under $200 for the year of property taxes. I own the land for less than 1 year of rent.
I can live in an RV, and I can build a house or convert a shed to live in so it’s super affordable, plus I have room for a garden to feed my family.
I’m not trying to step on your comment, but I read this as unrealistic? It sounds like you bought land, but don’t actually live on it currently. Like, you CAN live in an RV, but what are you actually doing with it now? Again, not trying to be a dick. I actually considered the exact same, but once we started crunching numbers on what we wanted, just buying the land and building on it was out of our budget.
It really really depends on the county and it’s rules, there are a few counties near here that have permits to live in an RV, the county I am in is a bit more restrictive and requires a building permit to have an RV.
Right now we are camping in the car as we wait for the septic, since it’s holidays things are a bit slow now.
For anyone considering this, check your zoning laws. Years ago, to save money, I wanted to buy some land and put a trailer on it so I could save up to build something more permanent.
The laws did not permit that. Nor living in an RV. Or living in your car. We had to fight to get tiny houses here IIRC, but the cost savings for those isn’t as big as I would have hoped. (And being disabled, being able to do a lot of the work to save money wasn’t an available option.)
Yes the county rules are very important, there’s only a few counties that allow this. I moved to a state that allows us to live in an RV and to build our own house out of almost any materials.
The best time to buy is when you need to, it’s hard to time the market and if you are going to stay there for a long time all that matters is can you afford it. Where I live they sure seem overvalued, but when we bought our house I was sure it was overpriced and the theoretical value now is 2x that amount not even 5 years later, WTF? So my guess is we will see a downturn, especially with the new government, but really the best time to buy doesn’t always align with the best price.
Remember that maintenance on a house is expensive too, build that into your affordability calculation.
Since 2008 the best time to buy has been when you have the money and find something appropriate. It’s no different now. Millennials have been hoping for a housing crash they could take advantage of for 16 years and it hasn’t materialized. Prices just keep going up and historical evidence suggests that will continue until another crash at an indeterminate point in the future. Trying to time that point is only going to leave you as a permanent renter.
Trying to work out house price trends is like trying to catch a falling knife. My advice would always be that you should just buy when you have the deposit and know you can make the mortgage payments.
You’re gonna have to specify an area, and you’d be better off asking people from that area
Ah you’re right. I figured the US overall would kinda answer the question. But I guess NW Washington state is where I’m looking.
Things are only seemingly getting worse. I’d say buy while you can still afford to and there is inventory, who knows what kind of crazinesss is coming to the economy after January.
If things get too wild, sellers will remove inventory, only making both rent and existing inventory prices increase.
I really doubt the guy who loves low interest rates, looks to be trying to devalue the dollar purposefully, and is a corporate landlord himself will make a lot of moves that purposefully deflate the price of housing. He may do it accidentally, but I kind of doubt that too. If Trump gets his way and deports a bunch of people, welp…guess what a lot of the construction labor pool is? A mortgage is essentially a long-term bet that the dollar will be worth less than it is today. If you can afford to get one at current mortgage rates, I would pull the trigger. If rates drop again you can refinance, but what you will never be able to do is get a 2025 offer accepted on a house that’s now worth much more in 2030. My main regret in buying my place–in the pants-shitting part of the early pandemic–was not doing it earlier.
Great advice in the other comments, so I’ll only add this - with this being your first house, if you can afford it, do a multifamily unit or a property that can be used as multifamily. Nearly everywhere is in a housing shortage, so you’ll be able to get a good win win with some renters that can help pay your mortgage faster while they have an affordable place to live. Best if the units can be fully separated so less drama.
Tough to call. Prices are high right now, who knows when they’ll come down. I look at it like this: my sister just bought a house for $120k and her mortgage payment is less than what she was paying for renting half a house. If the real estate market bottoms out tomorrow, her house value may drop and her mortgage payment stays the same. If she had stayed in the rental her rent would have stayed the same. After the lease expired the rent might have increased but the mortgage stays the same.
An interesting perspective I heard about is “affordability”. To describe that with my own words: if your income is stable or will grow compared to your housing costs, and housing costs are not burdensome to you, housing is affordable to you. Owning a house rather than having a lease should make your housing costs vary less, so if housing costs will go up in the future it might be useful to buy a house (but if housing costs will go down in the future it might not be useful to buy a house). I found some graphs for “Affordability”: https://dqydj.com/historical-home-affordability/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FIXHAI
I have also heard that it’s hard to find people to do repair work in some places, and that people there charge a lot of money for their services. If you have trouble finding someone who you can pay just to produce a quote for a roof repair, the actual cost of housing will probably be higher than in other places.
I had a thought after looking at this post: I expect that it’s better to own land in places that are more likely for people to want to move to or work near.
Whatever bad luck you’re having with rentals is nothing compared to how badly home ownership can go, renting isn’t all that bad even if it is more expensive. What’s really expensive and financially distressing is a sudden and expensive furnace / roof replacement, flooding, fire, the list goes on
Mortgages aren’t going away anytime soon, start off with renting and see where that takes you before jumping into a $400,000+ loan
Well that’s a super nuanced answer though.
IF OP can afford a house AND can keep enough emergency savings to deal with an issue, it may still be better to buy. Rental money is just gone forever in exchange for not assuming any risk on the property, but it retains no value.
If OP can’t afford to buy at all, this post is stupid, so the question is really if there’s no money left for emergencies. In which case, the obvious answer is keep renting because a single point of failure pushing you out of your house is a bad proposition.
If there’s SOME money… It just depends on the house. Some of the failure points are covered by inspection, but it could be risky. Better to not max out your ability to borrow if at all possible.
First few years are spent in interest so it’s also going straight to the bank
Equity is uncertain in this market, especially with unexpected maintenance
Rent comfortably for a few years is still the better choice, buying a house now that might fall in price is a terrible risk
Depends how much money you have an the mortgage length you pick. Every payment covers some principle and some interest. There is no situation where you get a house and then just pay interest. This is a lack of understanding of how payments work.
The first few years are overwhelmingly paid towards interest and not the principal, it’s not an equal ratio throughout the mortgage. I think you missed some fine print
If you get into a mortgage then sell in 2 years you would have paid off less than 2 years worth of payments to the principal and you’re not getting that money back, that’s straight to the bank
“The first few years go to interest” and “the first few years are overwhelmingly paid toward interest” are not the same thing. The shorter the term, the smaller the total amount of interest paid is (and often the better the rates), and the more principal only payments you can make the lesser the interest paid.
Of course interest fraction is different by payment, but it’s not as though the first payments you make are a lost cause: mortgage payments are always contributing to your ownership, rent payments never are. It’s only a question of liquidity in the moment. Depending on the OPs situation rent could be more than a mortgage payment, in which case I know which I’d rather pay (as long as I could afford the insurance) if I wasnt planning to move right away.
A question of liquidity over decades with the liability of a big repair, and all for the hope of building equity and not paying rent in 20+ years
I’m paying more in rent than many of my friends with mortgages yet somehow their payments are shooting up with the rate changes, things are constantly needing repair and they’re stressed beyond belief
Not a problem here in the states: mortgage rates are fixed. Also once you put some equity in, you can usually leverage it. But it really depends on your personal circumstances.
Just look into what you can afford and what kind of loan you can get and see if it makes sense. I don’t think there’s going to be a crash because there is still a huge deficit of new building. I expect that there will be more housing built this year, but there’s still a high demand, so those new houses will be pricey. In the long term I expect more inventory to open up as the age group dying out is the largest age group. However, that inventory will be places that are less desirable to younger people. The population of small towns is about to shrink drastically.