I heard that there would be a new Great Depression.
I’ve also heard a lot of different theories, and one of them interested me: after the bursting of the bubble, AI will not disappear anywhere, is it in vain that so many data centers were built? AI will be embedded everywhere, people won’t even be able to test how it works, “it works somehow, great!” because all human workers will be fired, not at once, of course, but gradually, In a few years, about 2-7 years to be exact(depending on the industry). And because of this, AI systems will begin to get out of control, this will cause incorrect diagnoses, failures in the banking system, arresting or killing innocent people by drones, and so on.
The reason I’ve explained this so poorly is because, in the first place, the topic of AI and the debate around it is terribly infuriating to me, and it’s obvious that the harm from AI won’t be able to compensate for the little benefit it will bring. Secondly, I use a translator, so my text may seem crooked, unnatural, or silly.
AI won’t replace everyone. Have you seen those police robots? At the end of the day, it will be a regular old cop arresting you for making trouble, don’t worry.
People will loose money, the poor will get poorer, the rich will get richer. Some countries will become more fascist, others might become more sane. People will die, people will commit atrocities, people will fall in love and make more people, and the wheel keeps on turning.
True answer: no one knows.
My guess: it seems very similar to the dot Com bubble. Once it pops a lot of companies will lose a lot of money in the valuation and many will likely close their doors. But some will still exist, which are those with good business plans and a reasonable profitable business. Yes the dot Com bubble burst but there is still an internet. Companies basing their business on venture capital based on their valuation will likely crash and burn. A company forcing “Ai” for marketing or such will fail. A company with a good base business which happens to use Ai will probably be fine. For example a company making sandwiches to determine what sandwich you actually want to order probably will fail. A company who happens to use Ai to estimate how much of each type of meat and vegatables to buy each week based on recent use/sales will probably still be fine. Once the bubble burst companies who are only valuable because of marketing as “Ai” will likely die. There are uses but it’s not everything but they are trying to shove it in everything.
It will be a great time to invest in the stock market.
People forget the 2008 crash. In March, 2009, before Obama policy was passed, the DOW bottomed out at 6,547.05.
It’s currently at 49,704.34.
If you had invested in an index fund back then, you would have earned 7.59x your money.
It’s already happening. A lot of services and free tiers got cut in the last months, and paid tiers got more expensive.
It’ll not completely vanish, if you’re a sane human being you probably know it has a few usages here and there.
But once you start using it for real work you’re done, it’s just a matter of time for the chaos.
I think we’re in the stage of people slowlying realizing that AI work isn’t worth the price compared to a real human work. Because it’s expensive for a not so well done job. While real worker do a solid job, with consistency, for the same or less price.
The irony, given that machines always did jobs faster and more consistenly (like a calculator). But this case here we’re talking about a machine that try to mimic humans work without a well defined behavior.
LLM models are evolving very little these past months, very few improvements every new release. And so far no solid proof that it can do things well as humans do.
That Anthropic attempt on making agents build a C compiler was catastrophic, an insane amount of money for a thing filled with flaws. But proved it can’t do anything true valuable and trustworthy.
This is a good summary.
One thing I will add though, I don’t think AI is going away any time soon. The hype and saturation will probably fade a bit (hopefully). But what we are also seeing right now is a move to more self-hosted AIs due to price increases in things like Copilot.
I wish some if my coworkers would realize the limitations and hazards of over-using AI. Too many of them are still deep-throating all things AI, pushing for it to be used for every single little thing.
It can’t burst, it can’t burst! I bet all of my bit coin on this! What are we going to do!? I’ll get a bail out. Yeah that’s it a fucking bail out! Heidi get me my cocaine I have a scheme to plot! Oh it’s right here good. Good.
If it bursts. It might slowly deflate for a bit before more air is pumped into it.
I will finally upgrade my PC.
I think it’ll liquidate the kinda little bougie nest eggs of housing and 401’s that are still out there. All this is happening on the major indexes.
The seventies kinda got the durable assets, like most property and such.
