That must mean China is only months away from major breakthroughs that will replace ASML in their supply chains and show everyone that they never needed them in the first place. They only bought from the dutch out of the good of their hearts. Or so they will claim and tankies as well as some tech illiterates tech journalists will gobble that up like they do every time.
Clearly behind them there’s the USA pushing for that.
Isn’t this dangerous, like playing with fire? I don’t think that China is going to be “oh no the software license is expire, we give up and close all the factories”, rather going to invest billions to find an alternative and make ASML irrelevant in the country. It won’t be fast to see cloned machines but isn’t it better to keep them tied to licenses and expensive periodic maintenance instead of pushing a temporary roadblock that will lead to the development of workarounds, unofficial cheap maintenance routines and cloned machines?
I don’t think you understand the mountain of technology advancement that those machines need in order to keep operating. I won’t elaborate since there’s so much on this topic already on the interwebs. Needless to say. The machines can only operate for a few weeks at a time and often require maintenance at that time. So turn off the maintenance and the machines stop working altogether.
China reverse engineering EVERYTHING if you think they can’t, you clearly don’t see previous history, they aren’t fast but they WILL do it eventually, if there’s enough motivation (sanctions or/and profit)
They are probably the most complex machines ever created by humanity though, and requires expertise across the whole world to build. Even if they had blueprints, it would take years just to get the manufacturing right.
Yup exactly. The machine’s serviceable parts need very specific and complicated techniques to produce. Whatever you think China can conjure together, they’re gonna be dancing for around the same amount of time it took the US, Germany and the Netherlands to produce. So about a decade. Sure they got most of the machine already if I understand correctly, but that’s like giving a broken iPad to a monkey. And don’t feel bad if you’re Chinese, it would be the same if any other group of people tried to make it.
I said that aren’t fast, but they get job done, why do you think there are so many Chinese engineers working around the globe? They get rehired for very good money by Chinese companies when they get enough expertise, Chinese companies headhunt too
People here (including the US govt apparently) acting like it’s actually going to take China a decade to figure out how to run a wafer machine bruh.
Not only do they probably already have the procedures written down and kept safe, they’ve been already been experimenting with having to run the entire supply chain on their own for years now. Hell they’re even the ones basically carrying RISC-V development right now because they barely have OEM access to x86.
And that’s all without the assumption that China hasn’t stolen some key trade secrets that would give them a head start. I highly doubt this equipment will actually go offline besides some practice runs and research application which they have likely already done without telling anyone.
Pakistan’s entire nuclear arsenal only exists because one talented due working at URENCO (also coincidentally Dutch like ASML) took a few hundred documents and his years of work experience back to his home country. If broke ass Pakistan could figure out how to make fissile material and nukes in their backyard, China sure as hell gonna figure out how to fabricate chips without any external suppliers or contractors.
