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Cake day: November 19th, 2023

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  • In order to make sourkraut, you need cabbage, salt, a knife, a cutting board, a big bowl, a scale, and an appropriate storage container for fermentation.

    Start by rinsing the outside of the cabbage. Peel off any leaves that are damaged badly, cut out any smaller bad spots, then quarter each head, remove the core, and cut small strips. Weight the cabbage you have remaining, divide the weight by 50, and put that much salt together with the cabbage strips in the large bowl. Mix the salt and cabbage occasionally, and either punch it, or squeeze it. After 2 - 4 hours, there should be a good bit of liquid at the bottom of the bowl.

    Transfer the cabbage and the liquid to your fermentation vessel. Use weights or a plastic bag full of water to make sure the cabbage is below the salty water. Wait for 6-12 weeks, checking on it at least once per week.

    Lots of things can be used for fermenting, but the best is a stone crock with a lid that has a water seal around the outside, and a gas release valve on top. The cabbage can smell strongly during fermentation, so get approval from anyone you live with before attempting this recipe.



  • I’m generally in favor of gun ownership, and in favor of mandatory training. I wish the government would provide/pay for training, but I wish a lot of things.

    Before buying a gun, please consider:

    How will you safely store it? Are children Ever over at your house? Can you access it from storage in an emergency?

    Where, and when can you practice using your gun in a safe location? Typically, this means going to a range. It’s best if you know an existing gun owner/range member to help you the first time. If you buy a gun, you should safely operate it on at least two days, to build familiarity.

    What kind of gun suits your needs? Rifles are better for hunting, and other situations where time is readily available. Handguns are easier to conceal, store, and use. Shotguns are better at hitting things with poor aim, but they hit a lot of other things, too. Most guns are designed to fire one shape of cartridge (generally specified as a diameter and a length), but can support multiple types of bullet (full metal jacket, hollow point, and green tip are fairly common for rifles and pistols. Bird shot, buck shot, and slugs are common for shotguns).

    Not all cheap guns are bad, and not all expensive guns are good. Generally, more popular cartridges and guns are preferable, because it makes obtaining ammunition, maintaining the weapon, and knowing of any design issues easier.

    Accessories (especially a flashlight, or sights suited to the expected use) can improve the usefulness of a gun significantly. You will also generally want eye and ear protections for range use, and at least cotton swabs, a lubricant, and a bore rope to clean and maintain your gun.

    Do you know your rights? Do you know the laws applicable in your area? In some states, there are laws about which guns you can buy, how you can transport them, how you can carry them, how you can store them, and how you can use them. You should know the requirements for lawful self defense (Andrew Branca’s five elements is my favorite explanation). In all 50 states, there are laws about who can buy guns, and some restrictions about where you can buy guns. There are restrictions on how you can modify guns that apply in all 50 states.

    If you can afford training, look up the instructor you will have. The individual instructor makes a lot more difference than the facility or institution, IMO.

    If you, or a loved one that will have access to your firearm are, or could be suicidal, be aware, and act accordingly, that easy access to a firearm is a risk factor for suicide.

    If your gun fails to fire, or sounds weak when you pull the trigger, keep the barrel pointed in a safe direction. This can be a delayed ignition, or a squib. Both are extremely dangerous. After two minutes (longer if you don’t have a clock, and are just counting it out), you can open the chamber, remove the cartridge, and ensure that the barrel is free of obstructions. Depending on the kind of gun, this may be by running a bore rope through, or by looking from the chamber end of the barrel through towards the muzzle. If the barrel is obstructed, take it to a professional without firing it again… If this happens more than one time, throw out your ammo, find a new ammo supplier, and make sure that your ammo is exposed to minimal moisture in storage.

    Finally, the axioms of gun safety:

    Treat every gun as if it is loaded. Even when you have checked, continue to practice safe handling.

    Never point a gun at something you are unwilling to destroy.

    Know your target, and what is behind your target.

    Keep your finger off the trigger until you are ready to fire.


  • An AI actually more intelligent than humans is probably not a huge threat, many of the mutual cooperation things that make humans work semi-well together apply to an AI. Likewise, an LLM is unlikely to cause any problems just by existing.

    Instead, I think the big danger is something like an LLM that convinces people that its smarter than they are (probably by being able to recite more facts than they can, or offering copy/paste explanations of advance topics), and is then put into more and more places of trust.

    Once it’s there, we have the open possibility that something “weird” happens, and many many devices, controls, etc simultaneously react poorly to novel inputs. Depending on the type of systems, and how widespread an issue it is, that could cause extremely large problems. Military systems might be the worst possibility for this.





  • Trump was pretty ineffective in his first term, largely because he did a terrible job of supporting people who really agreed with his agenda, and an even worse job of removing people from influential positions who didn’t.

    He said during his campaign that he knew much better who to trust, but now he’s got Elon Musk and RFK Jr. prominently featured. I don’t think he has learned anything, and I think he will be just as ineffective this time.

    It’s possible that some of the Republicans in Congress will support more of his agenda, but even there if they have to overcome the filibuster, I don’t think mass deportation, a federal abortion ban, or most of the rest of the potential worst of it is in the cards.