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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Certainly there’s a lot of strategic voting going on. But you don’t see the Liberal (centrist) seat count increasing as the NDP goes down: the gains are all with the Conservatives. If it were a matter of progressives deciding to just consolidate with Liberals, you’d expect to see the Liberal seat count go up as the smaller parties went down. To me this suggests either that some people are flipping directly from left to right or that there is a general rightwards drift, with right-wing Liberals going over to Conservatives and left-wing strategic voters filling in some of the gap they leave for the Liberals. In either case it’s concerning that when the Conservatives fielded their most far-right leader so far, their share of the seats went up.










  • The UK is likely to leap to the right next time they have an election too. They had a decade and a half of terrible right-wing government then voted for something else, but what they got was terrible centrist government and they’re frustrated. The centrists expelled all the left politicians from the Labour Party, so now the choice in England at least is Labour’s centrism-with-bigotry, incompetent Conservative, neo-fascist, another fairly directionless centrist party that appears to be led by a clown, or Green. Because people are angry, it’s likely to flip far right.