This all presupposes that this “arms race” is going somewhere. Far as I can tell, trillions of dollars will be incinerated making a better word-guesser while claiming it will lead to some nebulous “AGI”.
How much more effective have the large models become for you over the last three years? Do you think development might come to a halt in China, for example, if US providers were indeed to stop developing or releasing them?
I think they’ve hit the point of diminishing returns and want to frame it as “we’d better stop before we all die”. That is, incremental improvement is all they’re getting from throwing exponentially increasing compute at these things.
This all presupposes that this “arms race” is going somewhere. Far as I can tell, trillions of dollars will be incinerated making a better word-guesser while claiming it will lead to some nebulous “AGI”.
How much more effective have the large models become for you over the last three years? Do you think development might come to a halt in China, for example, if US providers were indeed to stop developing or releasing them?
I think they’ve hit the point of diminishing returns and want to frame it as “we’d better stop before we all die”. That is, incremental improvement is all they’re getting from throwing exponentially increasing compute at these things.
So have they been getting better and better?
Yes, but less and less every time. Hence, point of diminishing returns. No amount of space data centers will fix that.
Interestingly, China doesn’t need this computing power, yet Kimi has now unveiled a competitive model all the same. I wonder how this will pan out?