I do rather hate that so many news orgs seem to be using polymarket et al as a drop-in replacement for actual polling, because polymarket is loosely affiliated, if at all, with reality. It’s a fucking betting platform. There’s nothing scientific or statistical about it that aligns with demographic realities.
Not to mention that a quality poll would just be among qualified likely voters in the election in question, where as polymarket is just gambling addicts anywhere on the planet.
I do rather hate that so many news orgs seem to be using polymarket et al as a drop-in replacement for actual polling, because polymarket is loosely affiliated, if at all, with reality. It’s a fucking betting platform. There’s nothing scientific or statistical about it that aligns with demographic realities.
Not to mention that a quality poll would just be among qualified likely voters in the election in question, where as polymarket is just gambling addicts anywhere on the planet.