• BigMikeInAustin@lemmy.world
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    22 days ago

    Some people already sold off at the lower price before it gets lower.

    Companies already had to make equipment orders and revenue predictions, which caused suppliers to fire extra people.

    And confidence has already been shaken since this could happen again at any time.

    Companies are now increasing plans to downsize to deal with the uncertainty.

    And the ultra rich are ready to start buying at the lower price. So that if the prices returned to last week, the percentage of differences of wealth from the ultra wealthy to the regular will be even higher.

  • GrumpyDuckling@sh.itjust.works
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    22 days ago

    If you’re going to retire in the next ten years you shouldn’t have so much money in the stock market. If you’re young then this is a fire sale.

    Big donors who wanted this own large private businesses and have very little market exposure.

  • remotelove@lemmy.ca
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    22 days ago

    This is my opinion, but yeah. It’ll take some time.

    The biggest issue is that money has moved to safer for investments. Those new investments may take time to mature and/or avoid tax penalties.

    Another component is that hedge funds are likely the ones taking money out of the market in a huge way right now. Hedge funds normally specialize in short selling and there is no better time to close or massively reduce those short positions. (They have other strategies, but their main function is in their name.) They can’t close their positions rapidly, or it will trigger a faux rebound in stock prices. (Short sales are weird like that. It may be one of the reasons you see short bounces in price as a stock price is cratering.)

    Unfortunately, the tarrifs are shifting investment policy against the US now from other countries. This will take years to recover from.

    What will really suck is that I have always speculated that these tarrifs are just the worst kind of insider trading strategy you will ever see. If the intent was to temporarily dump stock prices for the benefit of a few, I really don’t think it’s going to work like it did during COVID. COVID didn’t force massive global policy changes against the US the same way. Even if orange man decides to reverse course and lift tarrifs tomorrow, the damage has been done and there is no reason to restore previous investments. The risk is too high.

    • Clinicallydepressedpoochie@lemmy.worldOP
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      22 days ago

      Imagine someone were able to just pull the money and put it somewhere safe. Even if you jump back in with growth at the same rate, you will have lost the gains you would have made had there been no tarrifs.

        • 9point6@lemmy.world
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          22 days ago

          Well, impossible to do with certainty.

          But people are paid to try and do it at investment banks, and with enough outsider knowledge they can often get it right

          Of course that’s practically just gambling at a much greater scale

          • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
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            22 days ago

            they can often get it right

            They fail to outperform a broad market index like 85% of the time, and they charge fees for it lol

            • 9point6@lemmy.world
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              22 days ago

              Yeah, you’re completely right, I was more going for not impossible, but it’s even more luck than I realised

  • Ogmios@sh.itjust.works
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    22 days ago

    Am I taking crazy pills? The charts I’m looking at are still showing the markets substantially above where they were 5 years ago.

    • Frozengyro@lemmy.world
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      22 days ago

      They are, but what’s affecting people now is the concern.

      Say you’ve been investing for the past 10 years. You put in 5k a year. 5 years ago you had 33k saved after interest. You kept contributing, and a few weeks ago you would have 105k. With the drops in the mark the last week, you suddenly have 95k. You lost 10 grand, which will take you two years to put back in. Not to mention we’re expecting a major drop today, you might lose another 10k in a few days. That is what gets people panicking and selling.

      The reality is they haven’t lost anything unless they get out of the market. They still have the same number of stocks, and the value of those stocks only really matters when you sell them.