• Matriks404@lemmy.world
    15·
    2 months ago

    Every sane person working in tech saw that coming, lol. Not saying that AI is bullshit, but it doesn’t do anything that marketing want you to believe.

    • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
      2·
      2 months ago

      100%, AI moves in cycles related to scientific research, same as most other tech innovation funding hype boom/bust cycles.

      Incremental scientific research delivers new possible features -> funding hype to be first to market -> engineering builds products based on new tech -> people learn what it can and cannot do through use -> hype dies and funding dries up (you are here for LLMs) -> less funding stops engineering new products and research continues incremental changes until repeat.

      It’s been that way for AI since the 80s with expert systems, then deep nets, and now LLMs. I suspect a lot of layoffs over the past year have been related to over committing to commercial office space and AI solutions not delivering projected ROIs.

  • Sterile_Technique@lemmy.worldEnglish
    173·
    2 months ago

    It’ll require us to create an actual AI first, but yeah when that day comes shit’s gonna get real wild real fast.

    And no, the glorified spellchecker-on-steroids we’re all calling AI but isn’t actual intelligence isn’t gonna cut it. Fun toy though.

  • Dickarus@lemmy.worldEnglish
    21·
    2 months ago

    Some of you seriously need to stop living and dying by a daily heat map. We’re at levels that we were at months ago. Anybody who bought months ago is doing fine. Learn to zoom out.

      • AA5B@lemmy.world
        1·
        2 months ago

        Buying the dip tends to work when the stock drops below actual value or below their peers, when there’s reason to expect some sort of regression to the norm.

        We’re currently still in bubble territory. This is more speculation, more gambling. You only have reason to expect more wild swings

        • GrammarPolice@lemmy.world
          1·
          2 months ago

          Question: Stock rises as a result of its perceived value correct? So if a stock drops below its actual value, and many traders, having the knowledge that it’s better to buy the dip when a stock drops below actual value or their peers, buy the dip, isn’t it guaranteed that the stock rises?

          I don’t know how the stock market works, so this might be a dumb question.

          • AA5B@lemmy.world
            1·
            2 months ago

            It’s a good question, but stocks are a lot less logical than you may think. Bubble stocks, especially, are very emotion driven, very much FOMO.

            For “boring” stocks, there are statistical models using all sort of financial data about the company, including things like assets, sales trends, new product predictions. Those stock’s prices will appear logical and relatively stable/predictable, but will make significant jumps either way as news comes out that may affect it. Investors buy or sell based on what they predict will happen, and make money if they get it right.

            But for “exciting” stocks, this model doesn’t work as well anymore. The stock price is driven more by what people expect it will be in the future. Take Tesla stock as a great example. The price is sky high compared to the value of the company or its sales, very much unlike other car manufacturers what do you do when it’s still a minor company in vehicles sold, but the total stock value is far higher than any other? The CEO has made made some extremely ambitious predictions, that may justify the stock price, but are those predictions really going to happen? You may have heard in the news about investors “shorting” Tesla stock, usually represented as people who don’t believe in the future. The thing is, these were usually investors looking at the actual value of the company, the actual sales, even actual predictions of sales and deciding this does not justify that kind of stock price. They’ve usually been wrong and lost money, because the stock is not fact-driven, but emotion-driven. Now that CEO has come out with some extremely controversial views and is distracted from actually running his businesses, so that also affects the emotion around buying that stock. Will it still achieve the wild predictions? Do you have personally reasons to not invest in that person?

            What is your perceived value of a stock? What is your prediction of how it will change in the future, based on how well the company is run, what their products, sales, and support are like, how their industry may change, and news that may affect them? For an established, stable stock, you can predict enough to reliably make money, but changes will be small so you won’t make a lot. For a new stock driven by hype, with the potential to revolutionize an industry, predictions are more like a gamble, more based on emotion than fact. However stock price changes in both directions will be big, so investors can make or lose a lot of money very fast, depending on timing.

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
      1·
      2 months ago

      Now is just as speculative a time to buy as yesterday. Stocks are unstable. Maybe someone will prove DeepSeek lied and stocks will explode again. Maybe they’ll be proven true and stocks will drop much more.