jrs100000

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That would be great, but I just don’t see it happening. The way things are going well be lucky to have a Department of Education in a few years, and public schools might be following right behind. Even if everything turns around tomorrow, all the resources in the world wont get everyone to the level you are aiming at. There are people out there who do not see any value in literacy and there are people who don’t have the brain power. You could assign full time private tutors to follow them around and try to teach them things for their whole lives and you’d barely get anywhere. That’s just something well have to live with. There’s never been a society where everyone was intellectually active, its always been a more or less influential minority. If you want to improve society the best approach making the intellectual voice more influential, not trying to educate the gleefully ignorant.

Is that any worse than people getting their world view from a talking head on 24 news, five second video clips on their phone, or a self curated selection of rage bait propaganda online? The mental decline of humanity is perpetual and overstated.

It sounds like you are talking about use in education then, which is a different issue altogether.

You can and should set your AI to push back against poor reasoning and unsupported claims. They arnt very smart, but they will try.

An AI can produce content that is higher quality than the prompts they are given, particularly for formulaic tasks. I do agree that it would be nice if everyone were more educated, but a large portion of the population will never get there. If simply denying them AI was going to result in a blossoming of self education it would have already happened by now.

I’m not really sure what you mean. They are not perfect, and in fact it will usually reduce the quality of output for a skilled writer, but half of the adults in the US cant read and write at a sixth grade level, and LLMs are greatly improving their ability to solidify and convey their thoughts in a more understandable way.

People bad at math use calculators. People with bad handwriting prefer to type. Weak people use levers. Slow people rely more on wheels. Its like were a bunch of tool using primates or something.

Most of the companies/ceos doing this over the past few weeks do know better. That’s why they didnt say anything earlier. The reason they would be publicly taking this stance now is that they either expect to be rewarded by the incoming administration, or they hope to avoid punitive retaliation.

Because nobody back home will ever find out what happened to the dead soldiers.

Did you ever even watch A Taste of Armageddon? The whole point was that both sides were totally fine paying an unlimited number of lives for their eternal war. There is no magical number of human deaths that will bring peace.

Im not really sure how you think this is going to work. Do you think people like Putin care how many provincial kids he sends to their death? Maybe his oligarch buddies lay awake at night pondering the terrible human cost of their actions, considering all the compromises they might be willing to make in order alleviate this terrible suffering? Maybe the people of Moscow are just a few hundred thousand more pointless deaths away from saying enough is enough, and dragging their leaders into the streets?

Oh, so in a year it will be better?

Your analysis captures the multifaceted nature of AI progress well, and I largely agree that the perception of speed depends on how progress is defined. Here’s my take:

Areas Where Progress Feels Rapid

• Generative AI: Beyond ChatGPT and DALL-E, there’s notable progress in real-time applications like conversational agents, video synthesis, and multimodal systems (e.g., combining text, image, and speech capabilities). The focus on user-friendliness and API integrations is also accelerating adoption.
• Hardware: The emergence of neuromorphic computing and photonic processors could represent the next leap, addressing some of the bottlenecks in scaling.

Where Progress Might Be Slowing

• Model Scaling: You’re absolutely right about diminishing returns. While scaling models has led to significant breakthroughs, the marginal utility of increasing size has dropped, prompting a pivot toward efficiency (e.g., fine-tuning smaller, task-specific models).
• Economic and Access Barriers: With AI development increasingly dominated by large companies, the democratization of innovation is at risk. This concentration could slow down grassroots advancements, which have historically driven many breakthroughs.

Shifts in Focus

Progress is becoming more qualitative than quantitative, with emphasis on:

1. Efficiency: Sparse models, transfer learning, and techniques like distillation are becoming more prominent, offering alternatives to brute-force scaling.
2. Ethics and Safety: While often framed as a “slowing” factor, these considerations are crucial for long-term progress and societal acceptance.
3. Applications Beyond the Obvious: AI is entering domains like scientific discovery, climate modeling, and personalized medicine, which may have slower, more deliberate progress but could yield profound impacts.

Your Question: Signs of Progress Slowing?

I see areas like:

• Regulation and Trust: Societal pushback and increased regulatory scrutiny (e.g., around deepfakes or data privacy) can decelerate deployment but also guide ethical innovation.
• Data Bottlenecks: You nailed this point. The challenge isn’t just quantity but ensuring high-quality, unbiased, and ethically sourced data.

Final Thought

AI progress is less about speed and more about direction. Slower, deliberate progress in areas like ethics, sustainability, and accessibility might not look “dynamic” but is essential for ensuring AI benefits society broadly. The true “progress” may lie in creating smarter, safer, and more inclusive systems rather than faster, bigger, and flashier ones.

Because they wernt trying to make you happy? What part of maximizing shareholder value didnt you understand?

Thats true, but the only thing Trump wants from Putin is to finally hear someone say that Daddy is proud of him.

Who do you think pockets the tariff? It would just be the government passing money from one hand to the other.

Oh no. If a fistfull of trillion dollar bills will buy you a shot glass of rice that maxed out credit card from the before time is pointless either way.

If were going to slip into a period of hyperinflation then taking on tons of consumer debt is just good financial planning.

China does not actually give a shit about Russia’s problems, and they are probably not too happy about their campaign of global chaos either. Russia is useful political leverage, and if China just sits tight and lets things play out there’s a good chance Russia ends up as a subordinate client state before the decade is out. It’s doubtful they would put boots on the ground for a goal that does not align with their long term interests.

From 2017?