Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
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Sure, let’s do that.
no mention of the word “headline”
no mention of the word “headline”
no mention of the word “headline”
huh
yeah, not engaging in your gish gallop
no
no, and that’s not what Von der Leyen said either.
That’s your wishful thinking based on incorrect understanding. Again, don’t blame others for your illiteracy.
There was discussion back in 2022 about what can and can’t be achieved with sanctions. And it was constantly reiterated that it would take years to have major economic impacts as Russia wears out industrial machinery beyond its useful lifetime, and burns through its substantial monetary reserves. The only short term hope was that the Russian elite would have more power and force Putin’s hand to protect their wealth.
So if you were one of the idiots who didn’t listen back then that it would take years, and then misinterpreted every clickbait headline as a factual statement about the immediate collapse of the Russian economy that’s on you. Maybe stick to simpler topics.
Since you’re still on about this, yes, I admit I was wrong about this.
I assumed you were informed on the subject matter and were “just asking questions” to push an agenda.
But turns out you were trying to employ the Socratic method. Which requires a deep understanding of the subject matter, which of course you lack. You’re just an idiot who doesn’t understand how economies work and who takes clickbait headlines as fact.
Me accusing you of “just asking questions” was giving you orders of magnitude more credit than you deserve.
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reading clickbait headlines isn’t being informed.
You wouldn’t notice one of it hit you in the face. Except maybe if it came with a clickbait headline.
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So you base your arguments on a quote of Von der Leyen, articles by business Insider and CNN and whatnot, neither of which support your dumbass take. But suddenly they’re not good enough, because you’ve been called out on your bullshit, and you reference a mysterious previous headline by the Kiel institute that you never even linked?
please do link the Kiel institute articles from the past that have non clickbait headlines that show that we’ve been “hearing this constantly since 2022”
Go sue me for copyright infringement, since you seem to have come up with that phrase all by yourself and totally didn’t steal it
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Ok, let’s start from the very very beginning.
“are draining” is in the present progressive. It denotes an action in progress, not a completed action. Meaning the sanctions were in the process of draining the economy. Von der Leyen’s claim was not that the draining had completed but that it was in progress.
next is your complete lack of understanding of how sanctions work.
The very first sanctions package was immediately called “first sanctions package” at the time
The understanding, from the very first sanctions package, was that this would be a continuous process, with sanctions package after sanctions package, not a one and done deal that then needs to haphazardly be amended as you seem to think.
Sanctions need to be amended as the economic reality shifts and loopholes need to be plugged as the target of sanctions finds ways to evade them.
The 17 packages after the third were always going to happen because that is fundamentally how sanctions work.
And let’s look at numbers. European sanctions have reduced Russian fossil fuel export revenues by about $300-500 million per day. Not sure how you would describe this, other than “draining the economy”. And this does not include any other sanctions affecting other parts of the economy.
In your favourite metric, ballistic missiles, that is worth about 750-1000 Iskanders per day given the $400-500k unit production cost. Now of course money isn’t the biggest limiting factor in Russia’s ability to manufacture those, it’s largely parts availability that leads to big fluctuations in production quantities. Parts availabilities, which, surprise, are limited due to sanctions.
Strawman. “draining the economy” is not about making things a little more shitty for ordinary Russians. It’s about reducing Russia’s ability to finance the war, which takes time considering Russia had a $600 billion war chest, half of which is frozen in mostly European banks, thanks to the sanctions, and the other half is now, thanks to the sanctions, that were draining the economy, mostly drained. And it is about reducing Russia’s ability to source industrial machines and components to reduce their ability to manufacture weapons, like your favourite one, the ballistic missile. Where production quantities, as mentioned above, are fluctuating due to sanctions.
As I have stated before, it was constantly repeated all the way back in 2022 that sanctions would not defeat Russia on their own, and certainly not immediately, and would take years. The point was, from the very beginning, to make it increasingly difficult for Russia to finance the war and to produce weapons, so Ukraine could gain the upper hand, which is now manifesting on the battlefield, after years, as predicted.
People like you were told in at the very start in 2022 that the real world doesn’t work like TikTok instant gratification, and here you are more than 4 years later still not having gotten the point.
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