Signs are growing that Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses along part of the southern front lines in Zaporizhzhia region and are expanding a wedge toward the strategic town of Tokmak, while stepping up attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian General Staff said Friday there had been further success in two areas – towards the village of Novoprokopivka and further east in the direction of another small settlement, Ocheretuvate.
If they can get 10 miles past Tokmak they can rain hell on the M14 highway with 155mm howitzers, cutting off most supplies reaching Melitopol and areas farther south.
Then if they dig in and hold it becomes a waiting game.Don’t forget blowing up the train tracks leading into Tokmak! It’s not really about taking Tokmak but putting fire control on the train running through Tokmak. If Ukraine can prevent resupply via the trains then everything west of Tokmak falls practically without a shot.
I’m keeping my expectations low.
Being overly optimistic will only lead to dissapointment. It seems inevitable that this will continue to be a hard slog.
Man this is no time to be reasonable! /s
If Ukrane can pump enough energy into Tokamak, then we can start converting the Russians into deuterium. If the front gets stable enough, we might get a net output of electricity. Hopefully this happens before winter, as cold fusion is harder to do.
We’re inching closer to nuclear attacks. I don’t think Putin will allow Crimea to fall without it. Someone please tell me I’m wrong and why?
This has been a worry of mine from the moment Ukraine took back the airport and other countries began aid.
I knew this day was coming, just thought it’d be quicker.
The moment putin tries to do nuclear attack, he’s dead. Zelensky said it well, that putin spent most of the invasion in some bunker, before that he had this thing with ridiculously long tables being super paranoid about covid. He’s clearly not planning to die.
Also I think it helps to imagine the details. How would the nuclear attack look like? How would it prevent Crimea “falling”? What would be the breaking point? It’s not like there would be some clear change from Ukraine not touching Crimea to full on liberation. Ukraine is bombing military targets in Crimea even now. They are even conducting operations on Crimean soil right now. They hit the Kerch bridge multiple times already. Why press the button after 4th or 7th bridge hit and not after first?
Also it’s not like he can’t sell this defeat as victory. The way things are going there’s probably a lot of people in russia prepared to pretend that there was glorious victory after heroic attack towards russian border. There will be interviews in the Moscow streets with people praising the successful special military operation, because they know that if it continued few more months, there would be conscription in Moscow.
